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Cheltenham 2012 trends and trading stats

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  • Cheltenham 2012 trends and trading stats

    TRADING NEWS
    Hopefully our look at some of the races at The Cheltenham Festival over the next few days will give you some pointers to finding either winners or some trading opportunities. The Festival is so competitive and many horses trade at short prices but lose, so it is always a good idea to trade out of your bets to at least get your stake back. If youíve had £10 on a 20/1 horse and it leads at the last but gets beaten, it will probably have traded at around EVS (2.00) so you are giving very little away to trade back at that price to get your £10 back. If it goes on to win you will win £190 instead of £200 but if it loses you have secured your stake back. One thing I like to do in that situation is to add another lay bet in, at say (1.30) for £30 so if my horse loses in a close finish I will have secured £30 profit on every horse for throwing away just another £9 if it does hold on.

    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TUESDAY SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
    The curtain raiser to the festival is the Supreme Novices Hurdle and it is a common thought that the race traditionally goes to the Irish. In fact 6 of the last 10 winners were trained in the Emerald Isle but the last two years have gone to the Brits, courtesy of Menorah and Al Ferof. More important than where they are trained however, is current form, as 13 of the last 15 winners had won their previous race. In addition to that, 32 of the last 37 winners were aged five or six. That should narrow the field down a little, but does that help us trading? As it is the first race of the week, we will not know whether there is a bias towards front runners or if perhaps the hold-up horses will fare better, so it is wise to go easy as it is a long week. One thing we can be sure of is a blistering pace and for a lot of these horses, it will be the largest field by far, that they have competed in. The Cheltenham hill is notorious and it will certainly find out one or two of these, so beware of backing anything at a short price in running. This does give us some good trading options in the win market. In 2011 four horses traded at Evens (2.00) or less in running, the winner Al Ferof (1.01), Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre at (1.30) and the unplaced Cue Card at (2.00). The year before that, three horses traded below that price with Menorah (1.20), Dunguib (1.42) and Get Me Out Of Here at (2.00). As the standard of horses contesting the race is at the very top level, it makes sense that in the latter stages of the race, two or three horses will look like winning. Laying the field at (2.00 or less) would seem to be a reasonable option as you should get at least two matched unless we have a runaway winner which seems unlikely. Remember the downside is that if only one got matched you would lose your money so if that doesnít suit your style of trading you can lay at a much lower price where the risk and reward is more suitable. Had you laid for £50 (@1.30, maximum liability £15) in last yearís race then you would have won £85.

  • #2
    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TUESDAY ARKLE CHASE
    The Arkle is a race where shocks are few and far between as the last 21 winners started at no bigger than 11/1. Form is also important as 23 of the last 25 winners had finished first or second last time out and only two winners were aged over 7 in the last 20 runnings of the race. There were ten runners last year and the first five in the betting, all under 11/1, filled the first five places. They all traded at (3.75) or lower in running with the runner up Finians Rainbow trading at (1.54) and the third Realt Dubh hitting (2.24) despite never leading at any point. In 2010 only the winner Sizing Europe traded at odds on however five horses did hit (3.50) or less in running. The key is knowing what price to set your Lay The Field at and this has to be a bit of guesswork but it is unusual if more than two horses don’t trade at odds on. Of the 14 races on the first two days last year, 12 of them had two horses trade at (2.00) or less and of those 12 races, 2 of them had three trade at less than (1.52). This year’s renewal will set us a bit of a puzzle as at present it looks like we will have a very short priced favourite in Sprinter Sacre who likes to race prominently so if he wins, he could conceivably be the only horse to trade short. The other way to look at it is that if you can lay him at around EVS (2.00) then you will have one horse “in the book” before the race so you could lay the rest of the field at the same price and hope that at least one of the others bustles him up. Al Ferof, Cue Card, Menorah and Peddlers Cross are no mugs and all have a decent chance if the “hotpot” fluffs his lines.

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    • #3
      CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TUESDAY CHAMPION HURDLE
      This is a strong race for historical trends, with 24 of the last 28 winners winning last time out. There have been 8 Irish trained winners in the last 13 runnings and only 3 winners older than 8 since 1951. Cheltenham form is paramount along with a prominent place in the betting as 19 of the last 21 winners were in the first six in the market. Last year saw Hurricane Fly go off favourite and he duly obliged with the second Peddlers Cross and third Oscar Whisky hitting in running lows of (2.00) and (2.64) respectively. A race I will probably not trade this year as it is just possible that Hurricane Fly will win with none of the others trading low. The only opportunity may come if someone trading the race gets over excited or makes a mistake. That happens quite a lot; just make sure itís not you who does it!

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      • #4
        CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEDNESDAY NEPTUNE HURDLE
        Not a great race for Nicky Henderson so supporters of Simonsig will be hoping he can break his hoodoo in this race, where he has saddled 22 runners without success. Six year olds have a great record in this with 8 winners from the last 12 runnings and 24 of the last 26 winners had won or been second in their previous start. Six of the last ten winners had won a Graded hurdle race so it pays to follow the horses from the quality trials races. Beneficient, Batonnier and Monkland have the right profiles. Last year four runners traded at (2.50) or less with the runner up Rock On Ruby getting chinned at (1.05) and the unplaced fourth Oscars Well at an unbelievable (1.52). A competitive race is sure to throw up a close finish so there may be value in laying the field at a shortish price.
        Last edited by SteveTrader; 5th March 2012, 9:04 PM.

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        • #5
          CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEDNESDAY CHAMPION CHASE
          Moscow Flyer as an 11 year old was the only winner aged over 10 since 1997 which counts against the 2010 winner Big Zeb in this year’s renewal. As you would expect of a race of this quality, 31 of the last 32 winners placed on their prep run and Cheltenham form is vital with 20 of the last 27 winners placed or better at a previous festival. Master Minded went off favourite last year trading at a low of (3.15) and only the winner, Sizing Europe and the second Big Zeb (1.77) traded lower. This is maybe a race to watch and not trade, unless you can see a thrilling finish in store.

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          • #6
            CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEDNESDAY RSA CHASE
            A race where only two six year olds have been won since 1978 which means some of the leading fancies will have to defy a strong stat if they are to be successful in fact 8 of the last 10 winners were aged seven. A great race for trading in running last year as six horses traded at (3.95) or lower, four of those under (2.91) and two at under (1.55). The fifth and sixth horses, the favourite, Time For Rupert and Master of the Hall traded at (2.90) and (2.32) respectively despite never really threatening. In 2010 three horses traded at less than (2.87) but in 2009 only the winner Cooldine traded at less than (4.00) so laying the field at short prices is not fool proof. It is also unusual for novices unbeaten over fences to be successful as only Denman in the last 10 years has managed to defy that stat.

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            • #7
              CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEDNESDAY CHAMPION BUMPER
              The race has been run 19 times and 17 of the winners had won last time out. In a race only open to horses aged four to six, 11 of the last 15 winners were five year olds with only Cue Card able to win as a four year old since 1995. All of the 4 six year olds to win were trained in Ireland. Not a particularly good race for trading as the race can often be settled on the run for home with the winner streaking away. Last year, the 5th Cinders And Ashes was the only horse to trade low apart from the winner, hitting an in running price of (2.32). The year before, only Al Ferof (2.08) was able to challenge the winner Cue Card, in the in running market.

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              • #8
                CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL THURSDAY RYANAIR CHASE
                The most striking stat for this race is the need to have winning Cheltenham form. All seven winners had won there before, not necessarily over this trip. Since the race was first run as the Ryanair, twelve of the fourteen winners and runners up had won at Cheltenham before so the finish is likely to be fought out by seasoned Cheltenham campaigners. Recent form is not vital as only Taranis of the seven winners had won his prep race. Last year’s race was a gold mine for in running traders with 5 of the first 6 home trading at (2.44) or less. A lay of the field @ (2.50) would have proved very profitable!!

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                • #9
                  CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL THURSDAY PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE
                  A race where the older handicappers seem to hold sway and there has been only one 5 year old winner, Pragada in 1988, in 37 runnings of the race. Just over half, nine, of the last sixteen winners had won their prep race and fourteen of the last nineteen winners had previously won over 3 miles. The race is tough for favourites with just one success in the last seventeen renewals. Buena Vista has won the race for the last two years and will attempt the hat trick this year. As he races prominently and tries to kick away from the field he has been a thorn in the side for in running layers the last two year as no horse other than him has traded at less than (1.80), Son Amix, last year’s second. You would expect from a competitive handicap hurdle such as this, that you would have a close finish and two or three horses trading short. Be aware if laying in running, that if Buena Vista goes clear again this year, he might not be easy to peg back.
                  Last edited by SteveTrader; 8th March 2012, 5:33 PM.

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                  • #10
                    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FRIDAY JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE
                    The Championship race for Juvenile hurdlers it used to attract a large field, which means that luck in running was critical, however since the inception of the Fred Winter, the fields have tended to be smaller. All the runners are four year olds and so inexperience has also tended to be a problem in the past. However, it seems to be less so these days with more horses coming to the juvenile ranks straight from lengthy careers on the Flat and because they are so much more battle hardened than their more traditionally jumps bred counterparts, it is becoming almost impossible to win the race with anything other than either a decent recruit from the Flat or a French bred runner – racehorses in France begin schooling and racing over obstacles much earlier than British or Irish horses. On the whole, most winners tend to need much longer trips as their careers progress. Paddy’s Return, for example, became a top class staying hurdler, Katarino won the Fox Hunters’ Chase at Aintree over 2m 5Ĺf two years in a row and, most notably of all, Commanche Court won the Irish National and was placed in a Gold Cup. The last seven winners all started in the first four in the betting and sixteen of the last eighteen winners had won their previous race. For in running traders, last year’s race saw three horses, Grandouet, Unaccompanied and Zarkander, trade at (2.00) or less whilst the year before the first three home all traded at (2.10) or less.

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                    • #11
                      CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FRIDAY CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

                      The highlight of the festival for most and for those of you who fancy Long Run, a number of stats will back up your judgement. Best Mate is the last horse to defend his crown but he was also a young up and coming chaser the first time he did it and he then won it again the following year. Kauto Star will have to defy a long standing stat in that no horse aged over ten has won since What A Myth in 1969. Last year Long Run became the first six year old to win since Mill House in 1963 as most horses of that age head for the novices race, so not many have tried. Ten of the last eleven winners were rated 166 or higher and that is a negative for anyone who fancies Captain Chris, Grands Crus, Weird Al or Midnight Chase. A negative for Synchronised is that he doesn’t have placed form at a previous festival which twelve of the last fourteen winners had and eleven of the last twelve winners had won a race that season, a negative for Burton Port and Diamond Harry fans.

                      For In Running trading, four horses traded at (2.80) or less last year with three trading at (1.77) or less in 2010 and both Denman and Kauto Star traded at (1.95) or less in 2008. The two years that Kauto Star won it, in 2007 and 2009, only he traded at less than (4.60).

                      As we all know, stats are there to be broken but it does look re-assuring for supporters of Long Run that he seems to fit all the trends, despite not appearing to be in the same kind of form this season.

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                      • #12
                        SOME CHELTENHAM GOLDEN RULES: Look to last time out winners in all handicap hurdle races as around 50% of winners in the last 10 years won their prep race. It can often lead to a decent priced winner. In the Championship races, The Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and World Hurdle, disregard horses that failed to make the first three on their previous start. In the handicap chases look at horses carrying 11 stone or less, but don't disregard older horses in the handicap chases. The common perception is that the younger horses fare better in these races, but overall statistics do not bear that out. Give serious consideration to French bred chasers in races of up to 2m5f. French breds are all about speed as there are very few races in France beyond 3 miles. Above all, donít bet what you canít afford to lose; it is a long week with very competitive races. Be selective and consider trading out if your horse is travelling well and is trading short; it is a long way home up that hill!!

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                        • #13
                          Or you can not worry about the winner and just scalp the prices as they don't really move a lot Cheltenham week! Good old Southwell with some solid liquidity!

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                          My site: TheSportsTrader.com

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