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  1. #11

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    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FRIDAY CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

    The highlight of the festival for most and for those of you who fancy Long Run, a number of stats will back up your judgement. Best Mate is the last horse to defend his crown but he was also a young up and coming chaser the first time he did it and he then won it again the following year. Kauto Star will have to defy a long standing stat in that no horse aged over ten has won since What A Myth in 1969. Last year Long Run became the first six year old to win since Mill House in 1963 as most horses of that age head for the novices race, so not many have tried. Ten of the last eleven winners were rated 166 or higher and that is a negative for anyone who fancies Captain Chris, Grands Crus, Weird Al or Midnight Chase. A negative for Synchronised is that he doesn’t have placed form at a previous festival which twelve of the last fourteen winners had and eleven of the last twelve winners had won a race that season, a negative for Burton Port and Diamond Harry fans.

    For In Running trading, four horses traded at (2.80) or less last year with three trading at (1.77) or less in 2010 and both Denman and Kauto Star traded at (1.95) or less in 2008. The two years that Kauto Star won it, in 2007 and 2009, only he traded at less than (4.60).

    As we all know, stats are there to be broken but it does look re-assuring for supporters of Long Run that he seems to fit all the trends, despite not appearing to be in the same kind of form this season.

  2. #12

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    SOME CHELTENHAM GOLDEN RULES: Look to last time out winners in all handicap hurdle races as around 50% of winners in the last 10 years won their prep race. It can often lead to a decent priced winner. In the Championship races, The Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and World Hurdle, disregard horses that failed to make the first three on their previous start. In the handicap chases look at horses carrying 11 stone or less, but don't disregard older horses in the handicap chases. The common perception is that the younger horses fare better in these races, but overall statistics do not bear that out. Give serious consideration to French bred chasers in races of up to 2m5f. French breds are all about speed as there are very few races in France beyond 3 miles. Above all, donít bet what you canít afford to lose; it is a long week with very competitive races. Be selective and consider trading out if your horse is travelling well and is trading short; it is a long way home up that hill!!

  3. #13

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    Or you can not worry about the winner and just scalp the prices as they don't really move a lot Cheltenham week! Good old Southwell with some solid liquidity!

    http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4097/cheltenham.png

 

 

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