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  1. #1

    Post Grand National 2012


    AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL Saturday April 14th

    This famous race has been run since 1839 and the most famous winner was Red Rum who not only won it three times, but was also second twice. The race attracts interest all around the world and produces a huge turnover for the bookmakers, with the once a year punters desperate to find the winner. For those of you looking to dig out the winner, we can give you some trends and information that may point you in the right direction.
    TRENDS AND STATS

    • Nine and Ten year olds are the most prolific winners.
    • Look for Horses carrying 11st 5lbs or less.
    • Concentrate on horses with form over 3 miles and further.
    • The last 10 winners had won no more than one chase that season.
    • The last 10 winners had not run within 50 days of the race.
    • The last mare to win was Nickel Coin in 1951.
    • The last grey to win was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
    • The last Scottish trained winner was Rubstic in 1979.
    • The last Welsh trained winner was Kirkland in 1905.
    • The last Irish trained winner was Silver Birch in 2007
    SOME OF THE LEADING CONTENDERS

    10-1 JUNIOR trained by D Pipe 9yo
    Likely to start shorter on the day and won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last year. He has been targeted at this race with just the two prep runs and as all his best form is in the Spring, he has a lot in his favour and is a worthy contender.
    10-1 SYNCHRONISED trained by JJ O’Neill* 9yo
    Cheltenham Gold Cup winner who is in the form of his life and connections don’t really have any choice but to go for this. Top weight may find him out although he has won over 4 miles 1 furlong at Uttoxeter so will stay the trip. Any ground is ok for him but better will suit with a big weight.
    14-1 SEA BASS trained by T Walsh 9yo
    I personally cannot see Sea Bass getting round with huge stamina issues. Ruby has deserted him despite his consistency over a variety of trips. He also needs more rain.
    14-1 ON HIS OWN trained by W Mullins 8yo
    Ruby Walsh has committed to this one who looks sure to appreciate the extreme trip on breeding and decent ground will also suit. Easily won the Thyestes but will need to improve again but that might just be possible.* Will be popular this week and odds will come tumbling down.
    14-1 CHICAGO GREY trained by G Elliott 9yo
    The stats are against him as he is a Grey but he will definitely stay the trip and his shrewd trainer has won the race before. Goes on most ground and if he takes to the fences and doesn’t get too far behind, then he could go close.
    14-1 CAPPA BLEU trained by E Williams 10yo
    A former pointer who won the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2009. A little more rain would be ideal for the horse who finished 3rd in the Welsh equivalent in December. Bidding to become the first Welsh trained winner for over 100 years.
    14-1 BALLABRIGGS trained by D McCain Jr 11yo
    An 11 year old, which is against the strong trends but he did win it last year and has been lightly campaigned with a view to a repeat victory. Should get round and may run into the four but will do well to defend his crown.
    16-1 WEST END ROCKER trained by A King 10yo
    He was brought down at Bechers last year and won over the National fences in December over 3miles 2 furlongs. He has been kept fresh for this and a drop of rain would increase his already significant chances. Has a touch of class.
    16-1 SUNNYHILLBOY trained by JJ O’Neill 9yo
    Won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham with a strong staying performance and has a 3rd place in an Irish National on his resume. No experience of these fences and wouldn’t want the ground too quick, but he should stay and wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he was in the first four home.
    20-1 KILLYGLEN trained by S Crawford 10yo
    Seems to have been laid out for this following a good run in last year’s race where he was still in contention when falling at the 27th fence. Any rain will help and he had a nice prep run when winning at Downroyal in March. My particular fancy for the race.
    20-1 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM trained by N Henderson 8yo
    Tough for an eight year old to win especially one as inexperienced as him but with a shrewd trainer and was 7th in last year’s Topham over the fences. Trip is a complete unknown but if he stays he could be dangerous.
    25-1 GILES CROSS trained by V Dartnall 10yo
    Runs like an out and out stayer and has won three times over 3miles 4 furlongs but despite placing over 4 miles including 2nd inthe Eider, he has always looked out on his feet. On very soft ground he will run well for a long way but I can’t see him getting home.
    25-1 TREACLE trained by T Taafe 11yo
    Much better with cut in the ground so any rain will be welcome. Kept on well over 3 miles at Leopardstown in December but has a number of question marks against him. Will he stay and is he quick enough?
    25-1 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE trained by N Glynn 9yo
    Fell at the second in the race last year when well fancied but has not been in the same form this season despite showing glimpses of ability. Will stay as his 2nd in the 4 mile NH Chase at Cheltenham shows but may not be quick enough.

    Good Luck with whatever you select and let’s hope they all come back safe and sound.
    Steve

    Questions? *Try our Forum or catch me on Twitter




    This article was posted to the RacingTraders Blog Grand National 2012

  2. #2

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    Thanks for the preview Steve. Do you know if any winner has lead for most of the trip, or at least for the last half of the race?
    Cheers

  3. #3

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    I can't remember one but that's not to say they didn't. Remember if backing ew in the National look for bookies paying out on the first five. Ladbrokes and William Hill will only pay first four places.

 

 

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